The global population’s rejection of establishment systems and institutions is resulting in extreme election results following the coronavirus pandemic, said Don Guy, founding partner at GT & Co. Executive Advisors, during a session at the Canadian Investment Review’s 2024 Investment Innovation Conference in November.
“During [the pandemic], incumbent governments were being returned. . . . That’s been the opposite since. In fact, what we’re seeing is an anti-incumbent wave that’s reflective of that loss of trust. It’s either reducing large majorities or it’s returning new governments.”
In particular, the types of campaign issues that most impact the voting population are shifting, from climate change, gender equality and Indigenous reconciliation towards economic concerns, he said, highlighting the affect of inflation on common goods and services as one of the biggest economic challenges facing Canadians.
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According to GT & Co.’s public opinion data, two-thirds of Canadians blame the federal government for the current state of inflation and high prices. It also showed only 14 per cent of Canadians feel financially secure, while 43 per cent say they’re getting by and 12 per cent feel they’re falling behind.
As Canada faces a political shakeup, younger voters, typically first- or second-timers, are starting to review their political allegiances, he noted, and lean towards conservative causes as they face increasing financial concerns.
“There’s a reasonable chance that these attachments that conservative parties across the Western world, including Canada, are forming with these younger voters are going to endure and give the conservatives an advantage for a long period of time because of where young people are getting their information.”
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According to Guy, one of the reasons voters grapple with understanding the causes of high inflation is that they’re disconnected from the messaging of institutions, like governments, due to significant shift in the way most people consume news and seek out new information.
“The consequences of where people get their information and how they get their information, particularly younger people, has completely disrupted the business model of political parties.”
The shift can also increase how much attention is granted to fringe voices, he said. For example, during a recent research effort supporting vaccination causes, Guy found a cohort of respondents who were convinced that everything being communicated to them, even from officials, were lies and, in fact, they were the only ones able to tell truth from fiction.
“That’s a belief that has been fostered and is being reinforced on certain social media platforms.”
Read more coverage of the 2024 Investment Innovation Conference.