Ontario will need approximately 560,000 more workers by the year 2030 to maintain projected potential growth in the province, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
That translates into an implied unemployment rate of minus 1%, said Paul Darby, deputy chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, speaking at an event in Toronto earlier today.
The tight labour market in Ontario will be due to a slowing of population growth and an aging workforce. Despite strong immigration growth, Ontario’s population growth is expected to slow from an average rate of 1.5% in the first half of this decade to 1.2% between 2026 and 2030. And the participation rate “pretty much dies over the long-term forecasts,” said Darby. “As people get older, they tend to want to retire.”
With the unemployment rate “sinking like a stone,” employers can expect to pay their employees a lot more,” said Darby. “You’ll be fighting with each other like crazy for recruitment,” he said. And employers will have to pay a lot more attention to the health, satisfaction and productivity of their employees.
To read more about looming labour shortages, click here.
To comment on this story email don.bisch@rci.rogers.com.