2023 Risk Management Conference: U.S. political landscape offering uncertain outlook for institutional investors

Read: Biden will bring market stability as sun sets on Trump era: investors

The cumulative weight of the legal troubles facing Trump will be too much to bear, said Myers, pushing him to stay away from the ballot. “I do think [Trump] drops out at some point, probably within the next four to six months, and I don’t think he’s going to jail, but I think he’s in very serious legal problems.”

Amid several predictions about the upcoming political path in the U.S., he said his team believes there’s an increasing chance U.S. vice-president Kamala Harris will step up to take over for Biden, due to his age and medical history. “What I say on Kamala, is whether we like her or not, whether you think she’s useless, invisible, whatever you think, put it aside. We need to get to know her, because I am absolutely convinced, within the next three years, as I’m standing here before you, we’ll be talking about President Harris’ administration.”

A potential Harris administration would look very similar to Biden’s when it comes to policy, strategic direction and the priorities at hand, said Myers.

When dealing with political projection and risk management, he warned conference delegates against listening too closely to poll results. He explained that the U.S.’s polarized political landscape makes it difficult to create analysis based on what approvals appear in polls.

Read: Federal Reserve sees rates near zero at least through 2023

In terms of the progress of economical risk, Myers said he’s expecting a hard landing event caused by the Federal Reserve’s actions in the near term. “We have some pain to work through in the U.S. over the next four to six months. I’m more bearish. I’m in the hard landing camp. I think it will be a deeper but shorter recession.”

He said he also expects the Fed will raise interest rates at least a few more times to fend off the remaining stickiness of inflation. “In terms of policy error, the risk is [the Fed] actually over tightens the cycle.”

Real estate is one of the industries where Myers foresees challenges stemming from a severe correction. Indeed, he predicted that commercial real estate could see the biggest stress points. “Any time a central bank — and particularly, in the biggest economy in the world, but in any big economy — takes rates from near zero to 5.5 per cent in a year and four [or] five months, we’re going to see more breakage.”