If there was one message for defined benefit pension plan sponsor delegates at the 2022 Defined Benefit Investment Forum, it was that the fate of global markets in 2023 is on a knife’s edge.

In the keynote address, Douglas Porter, chief economist and managing director at BMO Financial Group, said he expects the Canadian economy will enter a short, shallow recession in 2023 — though he’s far from certain. As the Bank of Canada squeezes inflation, he projected a 25 per cent chance the country will enter a deeper, longer lasting recession —  the same odds he gave the possibility of it getting through the year in positive territory.

Robert Forsyth, head of SPDR exchange-traded fund strategy and research at State Street Global Advisors SPDR, cautioned delegates about the many traditional economic harbingers of recessionary periods that he currently sees in global markets.

Joseph Shaw, managing partner and head of institutional sales at Hazelview Investments, advised delegates to pursue longer-term strategies in order to avoid shorter-term uncertainty.

And Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, spoke about the most significant geopolitical risks facing investors in 2023, with nuclear war placed near the top.

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