Canadians have made significant gains in longevity over the past century, and further gains are expected, according to an actuarial study by the Office of the Chief Actuary of Canada (OCA).
The study, Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada: Actuarial Study No. 12, provides mortality estimates for beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan and old age security program.
“Canadians have made significant gains in longevity over the past century, and more recently at ages 65 and above,” said Canada’s Chief Actuary, Jean-Claude Ménard. “Over the last decade alone, life expectancy at age 65 increased by two years, a rate of growth of about twice that observed over previous decades.”
Future gains in longevity are projected to continue, with many Canadians expected to live beyond age 90, on average, in the future, three years more than the average today. However, living to 100 will continue to be a challenge for most. Currently, five out of 10 Canadians age 20 are expected to reach age 90, while only one out of 10 is expected to live to 100.
Other findings from the report include the following:
- The chance of a newborn reaching age 65 has significantly increased over time, going from 57% in 1925 to 87% in 2010 for males, and from 60% to 91% for females over the same period. By 2075, it is projected that 93% of male newborns and 95% of female newborns will reach age 65.
- Over the recent 30 years from 1979 to 2009, increases in life expectancy in Canada have been largely due to the reduction of mortality rates after age 65, as a result of a decrease of deaths caused by diseases of the heart. Over the same period, malignant neoplasms surpassed diseases of the heart to become the most important cause of death among those age 65 and older.
- Over the last decade in Canada, life expectancy at age 65 increased by two years, a rate of growth of about twice of what has been observed over each of the previous decades since 1929. It is further projected to increase from 21 to 24 years for men and from 23 to 26 years for women by 2075. This means that Canadians are expected to live beyond age 90 on average in the future.
- Life expectancies at birth of Canadians are projected to increase from 86 to 90 for men and from 89 to 93 for women over the period of 2013 to 2075.
Canada is projected to continue to have one of the highest life expectancies in the world along with Japan, France, Switzerland, Italy and Australia.
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