The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to strengthen from 3% in 2013 to 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015.
That’s broadly unchanged from the October 2013 outlook.
In advanced economies, growth is expected to increase to about 2.25% in 2014/15, an improvement of about one percentage point compared with 2013.
Key drivers are a reduction in fiscal tightening, except in Japan, and still highly accommodative monetary conditions. Growth will be strongest in the United States at about 2.75%. Growth is projected to be positive but varied in the euro area: stronger in the core, but weaker in countries with high debt (both private and public) and financial fragmentation, which will both weigh on domestic demand.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to pick up gradually from 4.7% in 2013 to about 5% in 2014 and 5.25% in 2015.
Growth will be helped by stronger external demand from advanced economies, but tighter financial conditions will dampen domestic demand growth. In China, growth is projected to remain at about 7.5% in 2014 as the authorities seek to rein in credit and advance reforms while ensuring a gradual transition to a more balanced and sustainable growth path.
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